Research

Working Papers Opening up military innovation: Causal effects of reforms to U.S. defense research with Sabrina Howell, Jason Rathje, and John Van Reenen Accepted, Journal of Political Economy WRDS Award for Best Empirical Finance Paper, 2021 Abstract · Ungated For governments procuring innovation, one choice is whether to specify desired products (a “Conventional” approach) or allow firms to suggest ideas (an “Open” approach). Using a U.S. Air Force R&D grant program, where Open and Conventional competitions were held simultaneously, we find that Open awards increase both commercial innovation and technology adoption by the military. In contrast, Conventional awards have no positive effects on new technology, but do create more program lock-in. We present evidence that openness matters independently from inducing differential selection, for example of less well-established firms. These results suggest benefits from open approaches to innovation procurement. Publications Lender automation and racial disparities in credit access with Sabrina Howell, Theresa Kuchler, David Snitkof, and Johannes Stroebel Journal of Finance, 79(2), April 2024 Brattle Group Prize Distinguished Paper, 2024 Abstract · Ungated · NBER Digest · New York Times Coverage · Washington Post Coverage Process automation reduces racial disparities in credit access by enabling smaller loans, broadening banks' geographic reach, and removing human biases from decision making. We document these findings in the context of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), where private lenders faced no credit risk but decided which firms to serve. Black-owned firms obtained PPP loans primarily from automated fintech lenders, especially in areas with high racial animus. After traditional banks automated their loan processing procedures, their PPP lending to Black-owned firms increased. Our findings cannot be fully explained by racial differences in loan application behaviors, preexisting banking relationships, firm performance, or fraud rates. Market potential for CO2 removal and sequestration from renewable natural gas production in California with Daniel Sanchez, Jonathan Santoso, and Marjorie Went Environmental Science and Technology, 56(7), March 2022 Abstract · Ungated Bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) is critical for stringent climate change mitigation but is commercially and technologically immature and resource intensive. State and federal fuel and climate policies can drive first markets for BECCS in California. We develop a spatially explicit optimization model to assess niche markets for renewable natural gas (RNG) production with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) from waste biomass in California. Existing biomass residues produce biogas and RNG and enable low-cost CCS through the upgrading process and CO2 truck transport. Under current state and federal policy incentives, RNG-CCS can avoid 12.4 mmtCO2e/year (3% of California’s 2018 CO2 emissions), of which 2.9 mmtCO2/year are captured and sequestered. It simultaneously produces 93 PJ RNG/year (4% of California’s 2018 natural gas demand) with a profit maximizing objective, resulting in profits of $11/GJ. Distributed RNG production with CCS can potentially catalyze markets and technologies for CO2 capture, transport, and storage in California. Innovative wood use can enable carbon-beneficial forest management in California with Bodie Cabiyo, Brandon Collins, Jeremy Fried, William Steward, and Daniel Sanchez Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(49), November 2021 Abstract · Ungated Responsible stewardship of temperate forests can address key challenges posed by climate change through sequestering carbon, producing low-carbon products, and mitigating climate risks. Forest thinning and fuel reduction can mitigate climate-related risks like catastrophic wildfire. These treatments are often cost prohibitive, though, in part because of low demand for low-value wood “residues.” Where treatment occurs, this low-value wood is often burned or left to decay, releasing carbon. In this study, we demonstrate that innovative use of low-value wood, with improved potential revenues and carbon benefits, can support economical, carbon-beneficial forest management outcomes in California. With increased demand for wood residues, forest health–oriented thinning could produce up to 7.3 million (M) oven-dry tonnes of forest residues per year, an eightfold increase over current levels. Increased management and wood use could yield net climate benefits between 6.4 and 16.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (M tCO2e) per year when considering impacts from management, wildfire, carbon storage in products, and displacement of fossil carbon-intensive alternatives over a 40-y period. We find that products with durable carbon storage confer the greatest benefits, as well as products that reduce emissions in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like industrial heat. Concurrently, treatment could reduce wildfire hazard on 4.9 M ha (12.1 M ac), a quarter of which could experience stand-replacing effects without treatment. Our results suggest that innovative wood use can support widespread fire hazard mitigation and reduce net CO2 emissions in California. Selected Works in Progress Subsidies in the presence of informality with Zachary Kuloszewski The role of informal workers in scaling waste management solutions: Evidence from Delhi with Ashton Pallotini, Yixin Sun, and Emma Zhang EPIC India Summary Blackouts and firm performance with Rowan Clarke, Chris Eaglin, and Zachary Kuloszewski