Working Papers
Firm adaptation and reallocation under rationing: Evidence from South Africa
with Rowan Clarke, Chris Eaglin, and Zachary Kuloszewski; updated September 2025
Abstract · Draft
Rationing policies are frequently implemented due to equity concerns. We study whether equitable-exposure rationing rules deliver equal economic impacts in the context of the 2021--2023 power crisis in South Africa. We leverage shocks to outage intensity and a rotational assignment system to generate quasi-random variation in electricity outage exposure, and we combine detailed hour-level outages with geocoded transactions data from a leading payment platform in Cape Town. Although we find that aggregate daily sales do not change on outage days, there is substantial heterogeneity across the firm distribution. Revenue is reallocated through consumers substituting between firms: baseline high-performing firms able to invest in defensive technology capture the spending displaced from their competitors, gaining roughly nine percent in daily sales while the latter lose a similar share. Unequal effects are amplified when firms are able to anticipate electricity outages. The results suggest the impacts of rationing are not equal despite equitable exposure.
Urban expansion, drought risk, and willingness-to-pay for piped water
with Ashton Pallottini and Emma Zhang; updated September 2025
Abstract · Draft
Cities in the global south are rapidly expanding into areas that are not serviced by public utilities such as piped water, relying instead on private substitutes like groundwater. We examine rising groundwater drought risk to investigate how a shock to the quality of these private substitutes impacts demand for public utilities. We estimate that a major groundwater drought in Bangalore permanently increased residents' willingness-to-pay to live near the pipe network by 0.4\% of monthly rents per 100m. We show consequently that new residential construction projects that are close to the piped water network increased by 25-51\% relative to those that are farther. Using a structural model of housing demand, we find that housing market adjustment recover 20\% of the welfare gains of expanded pipe access at just 2.4\% the cost. Our findings highlight both that public infrastructure quality governs urban expansion and that housing markets enable adaptation to local environmental hazards.
Publications
Opening up military innovation: Causal effects of reforms to U.S. defense research
with Sabrina Howell, Jason Rathje, and John Van Reenen
Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy
WRDS Award for Best Empirical Finance Paper, 2021
Abstract · Ungated
For governments procuring innovation, one choice is whether to specify desired products (a “Conventional” approach) or allow firms to suggest ideas (an “Open” approach). Using a U.S. Air Force R&D grant program, where Open and Conventional competitions were held simultaneously, we find that Open awards increase both commercial innovation and technology adoption by the military. In contrast, Conventional awards have no positive effects on new technology, but do create more program lock-in. We present evidence that openness matters independently from inducing differential selection, for example of less well-established firms. These results suggest benefits from open approaches to innovation procurement.
Lender automation and racial disparities in credit access
with Sabrina Howell, Theresa Kuchler, David Snitkof, and Johannes Stroebel
Journal of Finance, 79(2), April 2024
Brattle Group Prize Distinguished Paper, 2024
Abstract · Ungated
· NBER Digest
· New York Times Coverage
· Washington Post Coverage
Process automation reduces racial disparities in credit access by enabling smaller loans, broadening banks' geographic reach, and removing human biases from decision making. We document these findings in the context of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), where private lenders faced no credit risk but decided which firms to serve. Black-owned firms obtained PPP loans primarily from automated fintech lenders, especially in areas with high racial animus. After traditional banks automated their loan processing procedures, their PPP lending to Black-owned firms increased. Our findings cannot be fully explained by racial differences in loan application behaviors, preexisting banking relationships, firm performance, or fraud rates.
Market potential for CO2 removal and sequestration from renewable natural gas production in California
with Daniel Sanchez, Jonathan Santoso, and Marjorie Went
Environmental Science and Technology, 56(7), March 2022
Abstract · Ungated
Bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) is critical for stringent climate change mitigation but is commercially and technologically immature and resource intensive. State and federal fuel and climate policies can drive first markets for BECCS in California. We develop a spatially explicit optimization model to assess niche markets for renewable natural gas (RNG) production with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) from waste biomass in California. Existing biomass residues produce biogas and RNG and enable low-cost CCS through the upgrading process and CO2 truck transport. Under current state and federal policy incentives, RNG-CCS can avoid 12.4 mmtCO2e/year (3% of California’s 2018 CO2 emissions), of which 2.9 mmtCO2/year are captured and sequestered. It simultaneously produces 93 PJ RNG/year (4% of California’s 2018 natural gas demand) with a profit maximizing objective, resulting in profits of $11/GJ. Distributed RNG production with CCS can potentially catalyze markets and technologies for CO2 capture, transport, and storage in California.
Innovative wood use can enable carbon-beneficial forest management in California
with Bodie Cabiyo, Brandon Collins, Jeremy Fried, William Steward, and Daniel Sanchez
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(49), November 2021
Abstract · Ungated
Responsible stewardship of temperate forests can address key challenges posed by climate change through sequestering carbon, producing low-carbon products, and mitigating climate risks. Forest thinning and fuel reduction can mitigate climate-related risks like catastrophic wildfire. These treatments are often cost prohibitive, though, in part because of low demand for low-value wood “residues.” Where treatment occurs, this low-value wood is often burned or left to decay, releasing carbon. In this study, we demonstrate that innovative use of low-value wood, with improved potential revenues and carbon benefits, can support economical, carbon-beneficial forest management outcomes in California. With increased demand for wood residues, forest health–oriented thinning could produce up to 7.3 million (M) oven-dry tonnes of forest residues per year, an eightfold increase over current levels. Increased management and wood use could yield net climate benefits between 6.4 and 16.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (M tCO2e) per year when considering impacts from management, wildfire, carbon storage in products, and displacement of fossil carbon-intensive alternatives over a 40-y period. We find that products with durable carbon storage confer the greatest benefits, as well as products that reduce emissions in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like industrial heat. Concurrently, treatment could reduce wildfire hazard on 4.9 M ha (12.1 M ac), a quarter of which could experience stand-replacing effects without treatment. Our results suggest that innovative wood use can support widespread fire hazard mitigation and reduce net CO2 emissions in California.
Selected Works in Progress
Subsidies in the presence of informality
with Zachary Kuloszewski
The role of informal workers in scaling waste management solutions: Evidence from Delhi
with Ashton Pallotini, Yixin Sun, and Emma Zhang
EPIC India Summary